What does migration to the EU look like in 2030? How do different scenarios impact international migration flows? How likely are various migration scenarios according to migration experts?
There is increasing policy interest in the European Union to better plan and prepare for future migration flows. This is reflected in the growing number of reports that use expert knowledge to anticipate migration trends and develop migration scenarios.
In this report, the IOM’s Global Migration Data Analysis Centre (GMDAC), in partnership with the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), examines the potential and limitations of using expert opinion to predict future migration. This pilot study combines two approaches, namely, migration scenarios and Delphi expert surveys, to assess the implications and uncertainty of immigration scenarios for the European Union in 2030. In this study, 178 migration experts participated in the expert survey. Data was collected from October 2019 to January 2020.
The results demonstrate the high level of uncertainty and disagreement among experts about how basic drivers of migration – such as multilateralism and economic convergence – might shape future immigration to the European Union. While expert advice is useful for stimulating strategic, long-term thinking and discussion, the results highlight the limitations of using experts to improve operational preparedness.
The full report can be found HERE
You can explore the survey data HERE